Reflections on the 102nd USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

Agri-Food Finance Fellows Zach Cooper, Abby Johnson, Lizzie McFee, Michele Micklewait, and Adam Sarnovksy and Mario Ortez, Collegiate Assistant Professor of Agribusiness and Entrepreneurship and James A. and Renae C. Pearson Collegiate Faculty Fellow

Attendance at the 102nd annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

The 2026 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum underscored the complex landscape facing U.S. agriculture — a sector poised between innovation and economic uncertainty. We left with a clearer picture of how evolving global demand, emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, and shifting trade dynamics will influence markets and decision-making in the year ahead. The discussions also highlighted persistent challenges, including balancing production costs with profitability and ensuring resilience in supply chains. Through this experience, the Fellows gained a deeper appreciation of the strategic insights and collaborative solutions necessary to navigate these challenges and contribute meaningfully to the future of the agricultural economy.

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THEIR EXPERIENCE:

By Zach Cooper – Junior studying Agribusiness with a minor in Horticulture

At the forum, I attended the “Food Price Outlook” session. During the session, ERS economist Hayden Stewart presented data on farmers' share and price spread data for multiple commodities. He also used the historical price spread and farmer share data to outline informed predictions for the coming year. Andrew Harig, Vice President of FMI, who works on creating a healthy and efficient food supply. His data gave good insight into consumer behavior and trends that producers, retailers, and wholesalers could use to help achieve the goal of making food supply efficient.

I originally wanted to attend the forum to gain valuable insight into agricultural policy and decision-making. I felt as though I got a great grasp on the baseline of policy and met lots of new people, while also learning about food and nutrition outlooks.

By Abby Johnson – Junior studying Agribusiness with a minor in Food, Agriculture, and Society

As someone pursuing a career in the beef sector, it is important to stay current on industry issues. It was exciting to see this reflected in the sessions at the USDA Outlook Forum. My favorite that I attended was “USDA New World Screwworm Research: New Innovations to Combat an Old Foe.”

USDA has been fighting this parasite for over 100 years – but thanks to innovations in science such as the Sterile Insect Technique, unconventional approaches like Gas Chromatography, and engineering achievements, it has not appeared in the United States since 1966. With increasing reports of Screwworm growing in Mexico and South America, the USDA is intervening and ensuring that it does not enter the United States. This conversation and panel helped me to reflect on all that USDA does for farmers and ranchers to ensure safety for our supply chain and economy.

By Lizzie McFee – Junior studying Environmental Economics, Management, and Policy

At this year’s Outlook Forum, one of the most insightful sessions I attended was titled “Improving Nutrition for a Healthier America.” The discussion centered around the updated Dietary Guidelines for Americans and how they will shape nutrition policy over the next five years. The session was hosted by Jenn Tiller, who plays a leadership role in developing national nutrition policy at USDA, and Eve Stoody, a senior nutrition expert who works closely with federal food assistance and education programs. Together, they explained how the new dietary guidelines are rooted in the latest nutrition science while also focusing on making healthy eating more practical and achievable for Americans.

A key takeaway from the session was the renewed focus on whole, nutrient-dense foods. The updated guidelines encourage Americans to prioritize fruits, vegetables, whole grains, lean proteins, and healthy fats, while limiting added sugars and highly processed foods. The speakers emphasized that the goal is not restrictive dieting, but balanced eating patterns. At the same time, there was tension surrounding conversations about potential cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other food assistance programs. For many low-income households, these benefits are essential to affording the very foods the guidelines promote. Reductions could widen the gap between nutrition recommendations and economic reality. Because the dietary guidelines shape programs like school meals and SNAP, their influence extends beyond individual choice. The session underscored that improving national health requires both strong nutrition policy and the resources to make healthy foods accessible to all.

By Michele Micklewait – Graduate student studying Agricultural and Applied Economics. (Agri-Food Finance Fellow alumna)

Having attended the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum last year as an AFF Fellow, it was really interesting to compare the issues affecting the industry then versus now. Last year, the main biological concern was Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), while this year the focus shifted to the new world screwworm. With the new administration, there have also been major market changes, making it a great opportunity to discuss what has changed and gain a better understanding of current challenges. I really appreciate the chance to attend again this year, especially since being a Fellow helped me build skills that I’ve been able to grow and apply this year.

By Adam Sarnovksy – Graduate student studying Agricultural and Applied Economics

I greatly appreciated attending the “Changing Face of Market Development” session, which provided insight into how the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is modernizing its approach to promoting U.S. agricultural exports in this increasingly competitive global marketplace. One of the most impactful discussions, led by FAS Senior Director Ryan Brewster, focused on a new agricultural trade promotion program that will provide $285 million in permanent annual funding starting in FY 2027. In addition to institutionalizing export promotion efforts, this investment signals a long-term commitment by the USDA to strengthen the global presence of U.S. agricultural products through coordinated market development, trade promotion, and strategic partnerships.

These aptly named Rapid Response Trade Missions will enable U.S. exporters to connect with foreign buyers immediately following new trade agreements, ensuring American producers can quickly capitalize on new market access opportunities. Likewise, the restructuring of USDA's international trade show branding into tiered "USDA-endorsed" and "USDA-branded" designations reflects a strategic effort to maximize visibility and credibility for U.S. products abroad. As someone pursuing a career in agricultural trade and aspiring to work within FAS or related organizations, this session reinforced my understanding of the critical roles market intelligence and strategic promotion play in expanding global demand. The session served as another example of how public institutions like FAS can strengthen the resilience of U.S. agriculture by bridging the gap between domestic producers and international markets.

By Mario Ortez - In closing

This year’s Forum brought together leaders from government, industry, and academia to examine the economic outlook for U.S. agriculture and explore critical issues ranging from commodity markets and trade to nutrition policy, market development, and emerging production risks. Accompanying the Fellows, I was reminded of the importance of placing students directly in the conversations that shape food and agricultural policy.

Acknowledgement: The Kohl Centre is especially grateful to the Virginia Cattle Industry Board for its generous support in investing in the next generation of agribusiness leaders and making this year’s experience possible.

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