On February 27-28, 2025, I [Mario Ortez] had the privilege of traveling to Crystal City, Virginia, with the Kohl Centre’s inaugural class of Agri-Food Finance Fellows for the 101st USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. As a collegiate assistant professor of agribusiness and entrepreneurship and the James A. and Renae C. Pearson collegiate faculty fellow, I was excited to guide our Fellows through this premier event, which highlighted exciting opportunities in the food and agricultural sector.

With the theme “Meeting tomorrow’s challenges, today” the forum featured influential speakers, including Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, and USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer. Over 30 breakout sessions provided in-depth discussions on the evolving landscape of American agriculture and its position in the world.

Key Insights from the Agri-Food Finance Fellows

People sitting on stage and talking
(Left to right) Jayson Lusk, vice president and dean of OSU agricultural programs, Jaime Castaneda, executive vice president for policy & strategy, National Milk Producers Federation, Shari Rogge-Fidler, president and CEO, Farm Foundation, and Hugh Weathers, South Carolina's Commissioner of Agriculture. Photo courtesy of Mario Ortez for Virginia Tech.

Navigating Economic Uncertainty and Policy Challenges

By Miru Yim

Attending the plenary session Addressing the Challenges Agriculture Faces Today gave me a deeper appreciation for the resilience of the agricultural sector in navigating regulatory uncertainties and evolving challenges. Speakers like Shari Rogge-Fidler, president and CEO, Farm Foundation, Hugh Weathers, South Carolina's Commissioner of Agriculture, and Jaime Castaneda, executive vice president for policy & strategy, National Milk Producers Federation, highlighted some of the most pressing concerns, including trade disruptions, labor shortages, and shifting immigration policies.

One key takeaway was the increasing need for adaptive business models and strategic policy interventions. American agriculture is highly valued worldwide for its quality, but sustaining production will require innovation, workforce solutions, and resilient policy frameworks. This session reinforced that navigating uncertainty is essential for the industry’s long-term success.

Opportunities in the Beef Industry

By Colby Crutchfield

As someone aspiring to work in the beef-dairy sector, I was especially interested in the discussions on the beef industry outlook. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer painted an optimistic picture for beef producers—declining feed grain prices and record-high beef prices create strong market conditions. However, the challenge remains: the shrinking cattle herd.

One key concern is that producers are hesitant to retain heifers, which is slowing herd expansion, even as feeder cattle prices reach record highs. While this poses challenges for the industry, it also presents opportunities for those who can navigate supply constraints and capitalize on long-term rising demand. This discussion reinforced my belief that strategic financial decision-making will be crucial in ensuring long-term profitability in the beef sector.

Securing the Next Generation of Farmers

By Michele Mickelwait

One of the most thought-provoking moments of the forum for me was the discussion on the future of the agricultural workforce. With the average age of American farmers now at 58, the industry faces a critical need for succession planning and workforce development. During a panel discussion, Hugh Weathers posed a powerful question: Where are the next generation of farmers going to come from?

Panelists pointed out key barriers to entry, such as limited income potential and work-life balance concerns. Some of the solutions they discussed—like veteran retraining programs and generational farm transition initiatives—show promise. However, it’s clear that mentorship, financial access, and agribusiness education will be essential in ensuring a sustainable future for American agriculture. This conversation made me reflect on how we can better support young and beginning farmers as they step into leadership roles.

Students standing in front of sign posing
Mario Ortez and Kohl Fellows. Photo courtesy of Mario Ortez for Virginia Tech.

Biosecurity and the Egg Industry

By McKenzie Marker

A topic that really caught my attention at the forum was the ongoing impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on the egg industry. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer shared eye-opening statistics about the industry’s struggles, including the loss of 166 million birds since 2022 due to repeated outbreaks.

One key takeaway was that, while biosecurity measures have improved and helped reduce lateral spread, 85 percent of new cases are now coming from wild bird introductions. Oscar Garrison, senior vice president of Food Safety, United Egg Producers, emphasized that this remains one of the biggest threats to the industry. Since the egg market is inelastic, these outbreaks also exacerbate food price inflation, as consumers have few substitutes for eggs. This discussion reinforced the urgent need for continued research and innovation in disease mitigation to protect our agricultural supply chains, which the USDA is hard-at work spearheading.

Trade Barriers and Market Access

By Alex Brandon

One of the most striking moments of the forum for me was listening to Ambassador Gregg Doud, president and chief executive officer for the National Milk Producers Federation, discussion on U.S. grain exports to the European Union. He shared a staggering fact: In 1980, the U.S. exported $12 billion worth of grain to the EU. Today, more than 40 years later, that number remains unchanged—stuck between $10 and $12 billion. As he put it, our grain exports to the EU have been "flat as a pancake."

This stagnation is largely due to stringent EU regulations on GMOs and pesticides, which have hindered U.S. market access. It became clear to me that if the U.S. wants to expand its agricultural exports, we need to really explore trade negotiations options or develop alternative market strategies. This discussion reinforced my understanding of the global complexities of agricultural trade and the importance of strong policy advocacy.

Risk Management in Agriculture

By Diego Cuadra

At the forum, I was particularly drawn to discussions on risk management in agriculture. The combination of climate variability, market volatility, and rising production costs presents significant challenges for farmers. One of the most effective tools to address these uncertainties is crop insurance—not only as a safety net against natural disasters but also as a way to encourage investment in sustainable farming practices.

What stood out to me was the emphasis on financial tools that support resilience and long-term sustainability in the agri-food sector. As we face increasing environmental and economic uncertainties, these strategies will be critical in ensuring the stability of the industry. The forum reinforced the idea that proactive risk management isn’t just about protecting farmers—it’s about safeguarding the future of food production.

Looking Ahead: A Future of Challenges and Opportunities

The USDA Outlook Forum highlighted the vast opportunities emerging in the agricultural sector, reinforcing the importance of innovation and adaptation for future success. From a strong global demand for protein to groundbreaking technological advancements, the industry is poised for growth. However, maintaining leadership in these advancements requires sustained capital investment in research, technology, and infrastructure. Through this experience, the Fellows gained a deeper appreciation of the strategic investments needed to drive agricultural progress and are preparing to be active contributors in shaping its future.