Agricultural Economists usually think of agricultural output as a function of labor and capital, this quintessential relationship is embedded in our psyche.

So, it was much fun to attend the 2024 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report™ Launch in Washington D.C. in October, where each of those “ingredients” were discussed in various degrees and from different angles.

I had the privilege of sharing a panel with some great folks that are thinking really deeply about what drives productivity growth in the context of technology adoption. The panel included Dr. Alejandra Castro from Bayer; Arun Baral from HarvestPlus; Excellency Efa Muleta from the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture; and Dr. Rob Bertram from the U.S. Agency for International Development. A great combination of private and public players in this space.

The GAP initiative at Virginia Tech’s GAP ReportTM sheds light on global productivity growth trends, which are presently concerning. Using data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, the latest report shows that as a whole, total factor productivity (TFP), a measure of how efficiently agricultural resources and inputs are converted to outputs, not only has considerably slowed down (TFP growth rate globally was 0.7 percent from 2013-2022, compared to 1.97 percent from 2001 to 2010), but it is also falling behind the levels where we need to be to feed the population needs (Projections show that we ought to be growing at a 2.03 percent annually to meet food demand for 2050).

See here my 2020 discussion on the potential impacts on the prospect of population decline on Food and Agricultural industries, past projected peak of 2050.

Is this a Malthusian trap repeat?

Thomas Malthus (1776-1834) famously worried that “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man” (Malthus, 2010). But what we have since experience is indeed a very different outcome. Scientific breakthroughs like the one of Fr. Gregor Mendel, O.S.A. who laid the foundation of modern genetics, or Louis Pasteur who pioneered Pasteurization, or Nitrogen fixation from the atmosphere which was perfected in Norway, or Norman Borlaug fathering the “Green Revolution” among many other developments, revolutionized the ways we produce, process and store food. And the rest of the story is sometimes called “the miracle of modern agriculture”.

However, we must not become complacent and rely solely on this "miracle." It is crucial to actively work towards sustaining and enhancing this possibility, following in the footsteps of our innovative predecessors. This important message resonates with the 2024 GAP Report™.

A slowdown in R&D spending?

A key component in the equation of agricultural production is capital invested in research and development, often supplied by public or private sources. The dynamics of who provides more of it vary across different parts of the world.

What you spend those dollars on is also of relevance (The research or the development, the latter being considered more applied and experimental in nature). For example, see below a 2024 analysis by The Economist comparing university R&D dollars in the U.S. and in China (The Economist, 2024).

[Caption Figure: 2024 analysis by The Economist comparing university research and development dollars in the U.S. and China.]
[Caption Figure: 2024 analysis by The Economist comparing university research and development dollars in the U.S. and China.]

Some exciting developments in China over the past few years have included the discovery of a gene that, when removed, boosts the length and weight of wheat grains, another that improves the ability of crops like sorghum and millet to grow in salty soils, and one that can increase the yield of maize by around 10 (The Economist, 2024).

Off the Shelf & Into the Field

At the 2024 GAP ReportTM launch, I participated in a panel discussion titled, “Off the Shelf & Into the Field.” We discussed barriers to the widespread adoption of the exciting technological developments that research dollars are being spent on.

The GAP Initiative rightly wants to take an active role in facilitating conversation between public and private sectors to avoid exciting technological developments remaining on the shelf and not in the field. My contribution to this question revolved around the concept of agency, and more importantly, who has it.

Agency: Learnings from international aid over recent decades

During the panel, I talked about technology adoption focused on return on investment (ROI), making economics work, and the importance of a consumer-driven approach which are all instrumental considerations when it comes to technology adoption. But my mind was on agency.

I heard a wonderful reflection recently by Paul Collier about agency in the context of international development. Paul Collier is a long-time Oxford professor and former director of the Development Research Group at the World Bank and a famous writer on the topic of international development. He has written (at least) two highly influential books: The Bottom Billion (2007) and The Left Behind (2024). His thought was that economic development is something that must be done by poor countries not to poor countries.

This struck me, as an investor, farm owner, and native of a poor country. I’ve seen it. This learning applies to agricultural technology adoption. Who has the agency? Well, it’s not the researcher, nor the government, nor the bank— although they all play a key role— but ultimately is the farmer, the business owner, the agent herself. So, it all has to be thought out from this lense. Not what we think they want or need, but what they truly want and know to need. I believe this is something that we need to think about more intentionally.

Parting thoughts

It was great to hear both financial and economic considerations throughout the conversations at the 2024 GAP Report launch. Providers of capital have a fiduciary duty to spend their dollars well, so naturally return on investment is of vital importance in the conversation. Indeed, many of the participants that I spoke with shared with me that they were pleased to hear that economics seems to be taking a more prominent role in the table.

My bet continues to be on human ingenuity. We ought to be proud of the unthinkable technological advances in food production that we have been fortunate to experience, and at the same time continue thinking deeply about our present challenges. To be good stewards of our natural resources, and to care for those who have enjoyed less of such developments, are all central components to the conversation.

How do we achieve success?  Robust collaborations between the private and public sectors are certainly a great step in that direction, and this is precisely what the GAP Initiative facilitated for us.

Resources cited:

Agnew, J. & Nakelse, T, (2024). T. Thompson (Ed.) 2024 Global Agricultural Productivity Report: Powering Productivity: Scaling High Impact Bundles of Proven & Emerging Tools. Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. Available online

Ortez, Mario (2022). Food Production and Population Growth: A Cautionary Tale. Purdue Agricultural Economics Report. Available online

Malthus, Thomas Robert (18 January 2010). An Essay on the Principle of Population. Oxfordshire, England: Oxford World's Classics. p. 13. ISBN 978-1450535540.

Vollset SE, Goren E, Yuan CW, Cao J, Smith AE, Hsiao T, Bisignano C, Azhar GS, Castro E, Chalek J, Dolgert AJ, Frank T, Fukutaki K, Hay SI, Lozano R, Mokdad AH, Nandakumar V, Pierce M, Pletcher M, Robalik T, Steuben KM, Wunrow HY, Zlavog BS, Murray CJL. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet. 2020 Oct 4 17. Available online

The Economist. (2024, June 12). China has become a scientific superpower.

The Economist. (2024, September 19). Why the world's poorest are being left behind [Podcast episode].